Despite Yemenis’ longing for a peace that would end many years of suffering, the rapid developments unfolding in some southern and eastern governorates raise serious questions about the future of stability and how these shifts may affect the prospects for a comprehensive peace in the country.

The expanding influence of the Southern Transitional Council on the ground, and its tightening control over Hadramawt and Al-Mahrah, represents a new reality added to an already complex political and security landscape.

Instead of translating these changes on the ground into better services or reduced living burdens, citizens find themselves facing growing anxiety and uncertainty, especially in southern areas witnessing a reconfiguration of controlling forces.

From a humanitarian perspective, peace for Yemenis is not tied to shifting spheres of influence or changes in control, but rather to their ability to live safely, maintain stable sources of income, and access basic services.

However, in light of recent developments, fears are mounting that these expansions may disrupt dialogue efforts and create new tensions that directly affect civilians’ living conditions.

Moreover, any unilateral change in the balance of control—absent a comprehensive political consensus—risks entrenching division and reproducing the conflict in new forms, even if direct military confrontations are absent.

Sustainable peace cannot be built on expanding influence by force or imposing new faits accomplis, but rather on an inclusive political process that ensures the participation of all parties and places Yemenis’ humanitarian needs at the forefront of priorities.

Without this, any expansion on the ground may become an additional factor weakening the chances for peace and prolonging the crisis instead of ending it.

Ultimately, the true measure of success for any political process is its positive impact on people’s lives.